Loading angle plays — matchups, pitcher stats & batter form...
How a play qualifies (any one trips the wire):
🎯 Proven mastery — pitcher >5 GS & ERA>4.00, batter ≥5 PA & ≥.300 vs him, graded by XBH/HR in matchup.
💥 Smash Spot — platoon edge, RHP/LHP with ERA>4.50, HR-friendly park (HR factor ≥100), boosted by hot L14.
🎯 Contact Smash — elite contact bat (K%<18%, AVG>.280) vs hittable pitcher (ERA>4.00, opp AVG≥.260). Hit prop angle.
🔥 Hot-Bat Override — L14 ≥.350 AVG or ≥.950 OPS vs ERA>4.50 starter, when BvP sample is too small to trust.
💰 Book Spread +EV — sportsbooks disagree on HR price by ≥3pts implied probability; longest payout is the +EV side.
🎯 Proven mastery — pitcher >5 GS & ERA>4.00, batter ≥5 PA & ≥.300 vs him, graded by XBH/HR in matchup.
💥 Smash Spot — platoon edge, RHP/LHP with ERA>4.50, HR-friendly park (HR factor ≥100), boosted by hot L14.
🎯 Contact Smash — elite contact bat (K%<18%, AVG>.280) vs hittable pitcher (ERA>4.00, opp AVG≥.260). Hit prop angle.
🔥 Hot-Bat Override — L14 ≥.350 AVG or ≥.950 OPS vs ERA>4.50 starter, when BvP sample is too small to trust.
💰 Book Spread +EV — sportsbooks disagree on HR price by ≥3pts implied probability; longest payout is the +EV side.