Loading angle plays โ matchups, pitcher stats & batter form...
How a play qualifies (any one trips the wire):
๐ฏ Proven mastery โ pitcher >5 GS & ERA>4.00, batter โฅ5 PA & โฅ.300 vs him, graded by XBH/HR in matchup.
๐ฅ Smash Spot โ platoon edge, RHP/LHP with ERA>4.50, HR-friendly park (HR factor โฅ100), boosted by hot L14.
๐ฏ Contact Smash โ elite contact bat (K%<18%, AVG>.280) vs hittable pitcher (ERA>4.00, opp AVGโฅ.260). Hit prop angle.
๐ฅ Hot-Bat Override โ L14 โฅ.350 AVG or โฅ.950 OPS vs ERA>4.50 starter, when BvP sample is too small to trust.
๐ฐ Book Spread +EV โ sportsbooks disagree on HR price by โฅ3pts implied probability; longest payout is the +EV side.
๐ฏ Proven mastery โ pitcher >5 GS & ERA>4.00, batter โฅ5 PA & โฅ.300 vs him, graded by XBH/HR in matchup.
๐ฅ Smash Spot โ platoon edge, RHP/LHP with ERA>4.50, HR-friendly park (HR factor โฅ100), boosted by hot L14.
๐ฏ Contact Smash โ elite contact bat (K%<18%, AVG>.280) vs hittable pitcher (ERA>4.00, opp AVGโฅ.260). Hit prop angle.
๐ฅ Hot-Bat Override โ L14 โฅ.350 AVG or โฅ.950 OPS vs ERA>4.50 starter, when BvP sample is too small to trust.
๐ฐ Book Spread +EV โ sportsbooks disagree on HR price by โฅ3pts implied probability; longest payout is the +EV side.