TD Regression Watch 006//RG

Players whose touchdown totals sit far above or below what their volume alone would predict, using the league-wide scoring rate of 0.0407 TDs per touch (2021–2025, minimum 50 touches). This is a screen, not a verdict — some players beat the league rate every year because their team hands them the ball at the goal line by design (Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' short-yardage QB sneak is the textbook case), so treat each name as a starting point for a closer look, not a conclusion.

ⓘHow to read: Expected TDs = touches × the league scoring rate. Above expected (red) = running hot, cool-off risk; below expected (green) = running cold, bounce-back candidate. Click any column to sort.

Running hot — candidates to cool off

Scoring well above volume expectation. Unless there's a structural goal-line role behind it, TD rates this far above the league norm tend to come back to earth.

Player	Touches	Actual TDs	Expected TDs	Above expected
JH Jalen HurtsQB PHI	800	70	32.6	+37.4
JA Josh AllenQB BUF	672	62	27.4	+34.6
ME Mike EvansWR SF	613	51	25.0	+26.0
DA Davante AdamsWR LA	818	56	33.3	+22.7
JC Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN	858	57	35.0	+22.0
GK George KittleTE SF	479	40	19.5	+20.5
TH Tee HigginsWR CIN	553	42	22.5	+19.5
CK Cooper KuppWR SEA	654	43	26.6	+16.4
MA Mark AndrewsTE BAL	512	37	20.9	+16.1
GD Gabe Davis	327	29	13.3	+15.7
DM DK MetcalfWR PIT	617	40	25.1	+14.9
TK Travis KelceTE KC	768	46	31.3	+14.7
DK Dawson KnoxTE BUF	292	26	11.9	+14.1
JG Jahmyr GibbsRB DET	971	53	39.6	+13.4
AB A.J. BrownWR NE	689	41	28.1	+12.9

Running cold — candidates to heat up

Heavy volume, light scoring. If the role holds, touchdown luck this poor usually corrects.

Player	Touches	Actual TDs	Expected TDs	Below expected
AK Alvin KamaraRB NO	1360	28	55.4	-27.4
TP Tony PollardRB TEN	1400	32	57.0	-25.0
NH Najee Harris	1386	34	56.5	-22.5
AJ Aaron JonesRB MIN	1283	33	52.3	-19.3
JW Jaylen WarrenRB PIT	786	14	32.0	-18.0
SB Saquon BarkleyRB PHI	1780	55	72.5	-17.5
JW Javonte WilliamsRB DAL	1121	29	45.7	-16.7
DS D'Andre SwiftRB CHI	1300	38	53.0	-15.0
MC Michael CarterRB TEN	614	10	25.0	-15.0
CH Chuba HubbardRB CAR	1097	30	44.7	-14.7
DC Dalvin Cook	744	16	30.3	-14.3
RS Rhamondre StevensonRB NE	1156	33	47.1	-14.1
MS Miles Sanders	786	18	32.0	-14.0
BH Breece HallRB NYJ	1005	27	40.9	-13.9
TE Travis EtienneRB NO	1168	34	47.6	-13.6

Expected TDs = touches × the 2021–2025 league-average TD rate per touch. A deliberately simple, transparent yardstick — it doesn't know about goal-line roles, scheme, or matchup, which is exactly why its outliers deserve a second look rather than blind faith.